Interevent Time Distribution in Seismicity: A Theoretical Approach     

G. Molchan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1135-1150

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time τ between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for τ for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensure Eτ =1, the interevent time has a universal distribution F, then F must be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. An erratum to this article is available at .  相似文献   

A Possible Detection of the 26 December 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake with Solution Products of the International GNSS Service   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Kouba 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(4):463-483

The main goal of this work is to critically review the IGS solution products and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) in order to demonstrate their potential to contribute to studies of large earthquakes such as the one that devastated Southeast Asia on December 26th, 2004. In view of a possible detection of the Mw 9.0 Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake of December 26, 2004, position solutions, ranging from intervals of years to one second, of four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations within 3000 km of the epicenter were examined. The IGS combined, cumulative solution product (IGS04P51), consisting of epoch and station velocity solutions and based on data spans of several years prior to the earthquake, was used as a reference. Four IGS combined weekly position solutions (igs04P1301-4), two weeks before and after the earthquake, were utilized for the weekly solution resolution. PPP static and kinematic solutions with IGS Final combined orbits and clocks were used for the mean daily and instantaneous 5-min and 1-sec epoch solutions, respectively. The most significant changes, detected by both weekly and daily solutions occurred in longitude. The nearest IGS station ntus, about 1000 km east of the epicenter, moved westward about 15 mm, while the more distant Indian station iisc (∼ 2300 km NW from the epicenter), shifted about 15 mm eastward. In spite of position errors caused by interpolation of the 5-min IGS clocks, the 1-sec solutions, based on separate data sets, available only for two stations (iisc, dgar), still showed seismic surface waves, in particular at the Indian station iisc. Precise daily IGS combined polar motion and length-of-day products, after correcting for the atmospheric effects, also likely detected, statistically significant, anomalistic excitations on December 26, 2004 that could be caused by this great earthquake.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of Late Cretaceous （ 60 - 67 Ma） igneous activities in the Hebrides Terrace seamount （guyot） area, Scotland     

M.El-Tokhi M.Omran A.E-Muslem 《中国地球化学学报》2005,24(1):9-17

Tholeiitic basalts in various stages of alteration were dredged from Late Cretaceous volcanic rocks (60 -67 Ma) in the Hebrides Terrace seamount area in the Atlantic Ocean. These rocks are extrusive olivine basalts, including high- and low-Al basalts. High-Al basalts are depleted in MgO, CaO, Cr,Sc, V, St, Zr and enriched in TiO2, Na2O, Nb, Rb as compared with low-A1 basalts. Petrography and bulk-rock composition (major, trace and rare-earth elements) data defined clear tholeiitic suites displaying possible liquid lines of descent related to different degrees of crystal fractionation and partial melting.Isotopic dating of dredged samples gave the guyot an age of 60 - 67 Ma, in support of the assumption that it was formed during the Late Cretaceous.  相似文献   

Implicit integration under mixed controls of a breakage model for unsaturated crushable soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yida Zhang  Giuseppe Buscarnera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(6):887-918

This paper discusses a series of stress point algorithms for a breakage model for unsaturated granular soils. Such model is characterized by highly nonlinear coupling terms introduced by breakage‐dependent hydro‐mechanical energy potentials. To integrate accurately and efficiently its constitutive equations, specific algorithms have been formulated using a backward Euler scheme. In particular, because implementation and verification of unsaturated soil models often require the use of mixed controls, the incorporation of various hydro‐mechanical conditions has been tackled. First, it is shown that the degree of saturation can be replaced with suction in the constitutive equations through a partial Legendre transformation of the energy potentials, thus changing the thermomechanical state variables and enabling a straightforward implementation of a different control mode. Then, to accommodate more complex control scenarios without redefining the energy potentials, a hybrid strategy has been used, combining the return mapping scheme with linearized constraints. It is shown that this linearization strategy guarantees similar levels of accuracy compared with a conventional strain–suction‐controlled implicit integration. In addition, it is shown that the use of linearized constraints offers the possibility to use the same framework to integrate a variety of control conditions (e.g., net stress and/or water‐content control). The convergence profiles indicate that both schemes preserve the advantages of implicit integration, that is, asymptotic quadratic convergence and unconditional stability. Finally, the performance of the two implicit schemes has been compared with that of an explicit algorithm with automatic sub‐stepping and error control, showing that for the selected breakage model, implicit integration leads to a significant reduction of the computational cost. Such features support the use of the proposed hybrid scheme also in other modeling contexts, especially when strongly nonlinear models have to be implemented and/or validated by using non‐standard hydro‐mechanical control conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas          下载免费PDF全文

Sisi Li  Margaret Gitau  David Bosch  Bernard A. Engel  Liang Zhang  Yun Du 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3543-3557

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.  相似文献   

碎冰条件下单点系泊船舶动态响应特性研究     

杨佳东  吕海宁  王晋 《海洋工程》2019,37(2):29-39

为了研究不同单点系泊位置对极地系泊船舶在来冰角度改变时动态响应的影响,运用离散元方法(DEM),计算了船舶在60%密集度下,冰速为1.0 m/s、冰厚为1 m时不同角度的船冰阻力,结合系泊分析软件二次开发功能,计算分析系泊船舶在不同来冰角度和不同系泊位置下受上述冰情影响下的响应。通过对模拟结果与试验结果的对比,认为离散元方法(DEM)的数值模拟结果与试验结果吻合较好;单点系泊位置为距船头L/4时,系泊船舶能以最快速、最稳定的方式对来冰方向的变化做出响应。  相似文献   

系统偏差常数弧段估计策略对多系统静态精密单点定位的影响     

洪菊  涂锐  王星星  刘崇锦  刘金海  黄小东  卢晓春 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(9):947-951

为探讨系统偏差最优估计策略，利用IGS提供的GPS、BDS、GLONASS和Galileo 四系统的观测数据以及GFZ提供的精密卫星钟差和精密轨道产品，将系统偏差（ISB）按照高斯白噪声、20 min、30 min、1 h、2 h分段常数进行单天静态解，分别获得E、N、U方向上的坐标偏差，分析不同系统偏差求解策略下多系统融合PPP的收敛时间和定位精度。结果表明，在多系统融合静态PPP中，从观测模型强度与定位结果稳定性和可靠性角度综合考虑，对ISB采用20 min分段常数估计策略是最优的，静态PPP收敛时间在30 min左右，收敛后的定位精度E方向优于2 cm、N方向优于1 cm、U方向优于5 cm。  相似文献   

氨氮急性攻毒对水产经济动物棘胸蛙(Paa spinosa)蝌蚪死亡率、排氨率、耗氧率及窒息点的影响     

牛春格  杨程  申屠琰  郑晓静  王志铮 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(1):188-196

以体长(1.932±0.204)cm、体质量(1.386±0.055)g的棘胸蛙蝌蚪为实验动物,在水温(24±0.2)℃、DO(7.30±0.01)mg/L、pH 7.30±0.01条件下,采用静水停食法开展了氨氮对蝌蚪的急性攻毒实验,并以此为基础,测定了不同氨氮质量浓度胁迫下棘胸蛙蝌蚪的排氨率、耗氧率、氧氮比及窒息点。结果表明:(1)蝌蚪对氨氮急性攻毒具明显的运动避毒行为,濒死个体的背部皮肤和肝脏均具明显的色变症状;(2)氨氮对蝌蚪的急性致死率具明显的剂量—时间效应,24h、48h、72h、96h LC50依次为177.5、151.7、148.6和146.8mg/L,毒性时段蓄积程度系数呈持续下降趋势,24—48h、48—72h、72—96h的时段MAC值分别为84.04%、10.1%和5.86%;(3)蝌蚪夜均、昼均、日均及时段排氨率随氨氮质量浓度增加均呈阶梯式下降趋势,其中时段排氨率与对照组均无显著差异的为9.80mg/L实验组,夜均、昼均、日均及时段排氨率与对照组均无显著差异的仅为2.45mg/L实验组(P0.05);(4)氨氮对蝌蚪呼吸耗氧具低毒兴奋效应,其夜均、昼均和日均耗氧率随氨氮质量浓度增加均呈先升后降趋势,峰值氨氮质量浓度范围均为4.90—7.35mg/L(P0.05),与对照组均无显著差异的仅为14.70mg/L实验组(P0.05),窒息点含氧量随氨氮质量浓度增加呈先降后升趋势,谷底出现于4.90mg/L实验组(P0.05),与对照组无显著差异的仅为9.80mg/L实验组(P0.05);(5)实验期间,蝌蚪氧氮比(O:N)波动于18.87—25.34之间,昼均和日均氧氮比(O:N)随氨氮质量浓度增加均依次呈"上升—稳定—下降—再稳定"之趋势,两者的峰值氨氮质量浓度范围分别为4.90—14.70mg/L和4.90—9.80mg/L,夜均氧氮比(O:N)呈先升后降趋势,峰值出现于7.35mg/L实验组(P0.05)。  相似文献   

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammad Rehan Anis  Michael Rode 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1119-1128

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Clinoforms and clinothems: Fundamental elements of basin infill     

Claudio Pellegrini  Stefano Patruno  William Helland-Hansen  Ronald J. Steel  Fabio Trincardi 《Basin Research》2020,32(2):187-205

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